Macro themes
Query: Macro themes · data as of 2026-10-12
Built a macro/geopolitical theme screen grounded in end-of-day data (as of 2026-10-12). STOCK THEMES table ranks 8 themes by avg 6M return — Cybersecurity & Cloud Software (+127%), AI & Datacenter Compute (+55%), Energy & Tanker Shipping (+37%), Medtech & Life-Science Tools, Consumer Staples, Industrial Reshoring, Defense & Aerospace (-7%), and Nuclear/Power/Critical Minerals (-15%). RELATED ETFs table ranks 36 US-listed thematic/sector ETFs by 1Y return (USO, CRAK, CHPX, SMH, IGPT, CIBR, XLE, etc.), with expense ratios, AUM and top holdings. Added per-theme forward-looking macro context notes citing drivers (AI capex, Middle East/energy, tariff truce expiry Jan 2027, rare-earth export controls, defense budgets, midterms) plus qualitative row comments.
Macro & geopolitical theme screen — stock themes ranked by avg 6M return and matching US-listed ETFs ranked by 1Y return, end-of-day data as of October 12, 2026.
STOCK THEMES — Macro & Geopolitical Drivers
| Theme | Description | Avg 1M Return | Avg 6M Return | Avg Revenue Growth (YoY) | Members (n) | Members | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cybersecurity & Cloud Software | Security and infrastructure software that gains from cheaper AI tokens | 27.08% | 126.79% | 19.41% | 11 | CRWD, PANW, FTNT, ZS, S, OKTA, CYBR, TENB, QLYS, CHKP, NET, RBRK | The cleanest beneficiary of AI's falling cost curve: cheaper tokens expand attack surface and data volume, and security budgets are non-discretionary. Watch platform consolidation and whether mega-cap AI budgets pull through to software rather than hardware. |
| AI & Datacenter Compute | Chips, networking, optics and servers driving the AI capex supercycle | 5.16% | 55.34% | 51.84% | 16 | AVGO, NVDA, AMD, TSM, MU, ANET, VRT, CRDO, ALAB, MRVL, SMCI, CIEN, COHR, LITE, DELL, ARM | Leadership is narrowing to platform owners (Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC) while second-derivative suppliers (optics, servers) get repriced on cheaper compute. Capex broadening into power, cooling and memory keeps the tailwind alive but dispersion is extreme. |
| Energy & Tanker Shipping | Majors, refiners, midstream plus crude/product tanker operators | 6.50% | 37.20% | 0.69% | 23 | FRO, DHT, ECO, TNK, STNG, TRMD, INSW, ASC, XOM, CVX, COP, SLB, HAL, OXY, FANG, MPC, VLO, PSX, WMB, KMI, TRGP, OKE, LNG | The commodity-inflation trade: crude up sharply y/y on Middle East risk and tanker ton-mile disruption, with refiners and tanker operators throwing off cycle-high cash flow at sub-book valuations. Watch Strait of Hormuz headlines and any US-Iran detente that could reverse the premium. |
| Medtech & Life-Science Tools | Medical devices and lab tools as low-volatility defensive ballast | 6.33% | 6.62% | 9.97% | 20 | MDT, ZBH, SYK, BSX, ISRG, PODD, BDX, ABT, EW, DXCM, GEHC, RMD, IDXX, TMO, DHR, A, WAT, MTD, COO, BAX | The defensive rotation destination — non-discretionary demand, improving margins and low macro beta. Tariff exposure is modest and reimbursement risk is the main thing to monitor. |
| Consumer Staples Defense | Staples and discount retail as a tariff/inflation hedge | 1.24% | 3.97% | 1.40% | 19 | PG, KO, PEP, COST, WMT, CL, KMB, GIS, K, HSY, SYY, MDLZ, MO, PM, STZ, CHD, CLX, EL, KR, TGT | Ballast if inflation stays sticky near 3-4% and consumers trade down; discount retail is taking share. Risk is input-cost and tariff pass-through, plus stretched valuations on Costco/Walmart. |
| Industrial Reshoring & Electrification | Electrical equipment, automation and machinery for onshore capex | 1.60% | 0.88% | 4.55% | 20 | CAT, DE, ETN, HON, GE, MMM, EMR, ROK, PH, AME, IR, CMI, SWK, DOV, FTV, GNRC, POWL, NVT, TT, CARR | Levered to onshore capex, grid and data-center electrical demand (Eaton, nVent, Powell, Vertiv-adjacent). Order books are solid but the group de-rated with the broader industrial complex on higher funding costs. |
| Defense & Aerospace | Primes, suppliers and defense-tech amid rising global budgets | -3.02% | -7.08% | 13.75% | 21 | LMT, RTX, GD, NOC, LHX, HII, BA, TDG, HEI, AXON, KTOS, LDOS, BAH, SAIC, CACI, CW, HWM, TDY, MRCY, RKLB, PLTR | Fundamentals are strong — global defense budgets up sharply, especially Europe and Asia — but the group is under pressure as investors rotate out of long-cycle, backlog-driven names into nearer-term cash generators. Watch the US midterms and supplemental defense funding. |
| Nuclear, Power & Critical Minerals | Power generation, SMRs, grid buildout and rare-earth supply | -6.45% | -14.84% | 1993.71% | 17 | MP, USAR, UUUU, UEC, CCJ, SMR, OKLO, BWXT, LEU, BE, CEG, VST, TLN, NRG, GEV, ETN, PWR | Caught in the momentum unwind: capital-hungry SMR and rare-earth names are being sold as funding gets more expensive and investors demand 2027+ profitability. Yet the policy driver is intensifying — China's rare-earth export controls and US DFARS restrictions from 2027 make domestic supply a strategic necessity. Highest-risk, highest-optionality theme. |
RELATED ETFs — Macro Theme Exposure
| ETF Theme | ETF Ticker | Security Name | 1M Return | 6M Return | 1Y Return | Expense Ratio | AUM | Top Holdings | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | USO | United States Oil Fund | -2.50% | 17.56% | 108.29% | — | 1.706e+09 | — | — |
| Oil Refiners | CRAK | VanEck Oil Refiners ETF | 0.24% | 36.31% | 83.51% | 0.61% | 1.717e+08 | VLO, MPC, RIGD, PSX, PKN.WA, 5020.T, NESTE.HE, GALP.LS, OMV.VI, DINO | — |
| AI Semiconductors & Quantum | CHPX | Global X AI Semiconductor & Quantum ETF | 2.40% | 45.39% | 77.41% | 0.50% | 2.576e+08 | MU, TSM, NVDA, AVGO, AMD, 2454.TW, ASML, MRVL, 000660.KQ, INTC | — |
| Semiconductors | SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 3.95% | 33.30% | 71.73% | 0.35% | 6.782e+10 | NVDA, TSM, AMD, AVGO, MU, AMAT, INTC, TXN, KLAC, ASML | — |
| AI & Software | IGPT | Invesco AI and Next Gen Software ETF | 2.57% | 48.82% | 70.94% | 0.57% | 1.213e+09 | AMD, META, MU, NVDA, GOOGL, INTC, 000660.KQ, SNDK, 2454.TW, MRVL | — |
| Artificial Intelligence & Tech | ARTY | iShares Future AI & Tech ETF | 2.57% | 43.30% | 56.27% | 0.47% | 3.691e+09 | AMD, MRVL, MU, NVDA, 2330.TW, AVGO, CRWV, 3443.TW, ORCL, SMCI | — |
| Energy | XLE | State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF | 1.94% | 17.11% | 54.72% | 0.08% | 3.867e+10 | XOM, CVX, COP, VLO, MPC, PSX, WMB, SLB, EOG, KMI | — |
| Oil Services | OIH | VanEck Oil Services ETF | -7.60% | -5.90% | 53.82% | 0.35% | 2.365e+09 | SLB, BKR, FTI, HAL, TS, SEI, RIG, WFRD, NOV, NE | — |
| Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | XOP | State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF | -0.33% | 16.20% | 51.33% | 0.35% | 3.37e+09 | PBF, VLO, DINO, XOM, MPC, PARR, PSX, MUR, CVX, DK | — |
| Energy Exploration & Production | PXE | Invesco Energy Exploration & Production ETF | 1.45% | 18.50% | 51.19% | 0.63% | 1.263e+08 | VLO, MPC, PSX, COP, OXY, EOG, FANG, EQT, CVI, PBF | — |
| AI Infrastructure | TCAI | Tortoise AI Infrastructure ETF | -3.21% | 12.43% | 44.03% | 0.65% | 2.169e+08 | DELL, VRT, MU, SNDK, PWR, STX, CIEN, WDC, GEV, MTZ | — |
| Cybersecurity | CIBR | First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF | 14.20% | 70.75% | 38.97% | 0.58% | 1.368e+10 | CRWD, FTNT, PANW, CSCO, AVGO, OKTA, NET, FFIV, ZS, RBRK | — |
| Technology | XLK | State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF | 4.75% | 35.17% | 36.02% | 0.08% | 1.245e+11 | NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AMD, AVGO, MU, INTC, PLTR, CSCO, LRCX | — |
| Artificial Intelligence & Technology | AIQ | Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF | 3.03% | 30.33% | 28.69% | 0.68% | 1.085e+10 | PLTR, MSFT, SPCX, INTC, META, ORCL, AMD, TSLA, TSM, NVDA | — |
| MLP | AMLP | Alerian MLP ETF | -5.72% | 5.17% | 25.01% | 1.01% | 1.214e+10 | SUN, MPLX, PAA, WES, ET, EPD, HESM, CQP, USAC, GEL | — |
| Energy MLPs | MLPA | Global X MLP ETF | -5.69% | 5.11% | 23.48% | 0.77% | 2.103e+09 | ET, EPD, MPLX, PAA, WES, SUN, HESM, CQP, USAC, GEL | — |
| MLP & Energy Infrastructure | MLPX | Global X MLP & Energy Infrastructure ETF | -3.07% | 1.95% | 23.14% | 0.45% | 3.543e+09 | WMB, TRP.TO, ENB.TO, TRGP, KMI, OKE, LNG, MPLX, EPD, ET | — |
| Health Care | XLV | State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF | 4.41% | 17.19% | 21.27% | 0.08% | 3.825e+10 | LLY, JNJ, ABBV, MRK, UNH, TMO, AMGN, GILD, ABT, PFE | — |
| Smart Grid | GRID | First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index Fund | -0.96% | 0.10% | 18.09% | 0.56% | 1.129e+10 | ETN, PWR, JCI, ABBN.SW, SU.PA, PRY.MI, NG.L, EOAN.DE, NVT, HUBB | — |
| AI & Power Infrastructure | AIPO | Defiance AI & Power Infrastructure ETF | -2.38% | 0.86% | 17.17% | 0.69% | 7.509e+08 | ETN, PWR, GEV, VRT, BE, GOOGL, NVDA, AVGO, CCO.TO, CEG | — |
| Robotics & Automation | ROBO | ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF | 1.16% | 6.48% | 17.13% | 0.95% | 2.023e+09 | ISRG, 6324.T, CELT, ILMN, 6954.T, TER, ROK, AMBA, NOVT, 6134.T | — |
| Lithium & Battery | LIT | Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF | -4.36% | -14.19% | 16.46% | 0.75% | 2.239e+09 | RIO, 6752.T, 002371.SZ, 6762.T, 006400.KQ, TSLA, 373220.KQ, ALB, 300014.SZ, 01211 | — |
| Energy Infrastructure | EMLP | First Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund | -2.67% | -1.48% | 14.61% | 0.95% | 3.935e+09 | EPD, ET, MPLX, MISXX, PAGP, NFG, KMI, PPL, SO, DUK | — |
| Infrastructure | PAVE | Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF | -1.31% | -2.83% | 12.98% | 0.47% | 1.354e+10 | DE, FAST, EMR, ETN, PWR, NUE, PH, ROK, TT, UNP | — |
| Industrials | XLI | State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF | -1.60% | -1.57% | 11.61% | 0.08% | 3.022e+10 | CAT, GE, GEV, RTX, DE, ETN, UNP, BA, UBER, PH | — |
| Consumer Staples | XLP | State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF | 1.90% | 4.91% | 11.13% | 0.08% | 1.486e+10 | WMT, COST, PG, KO, PM, TGT, MO, CL, PEP, MDLZ | — |
| American Industrial Renaissance | AIRR | First Trust RBA American Industrial Renaissance ETF | -3.99% | -15.45% | 5.98% | 0.69% | 1.062e+10 | IESC, FPS, KTOS, POWL, RBC, SPXC, BWXT, OC, NXT, SAIA | — |
| Aerospace & Defense | ITA | iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF | -5.82% | -11.34% | -2.22% | 0.37% | 1.433e+10 | GE, RTX, BA, HWM, LMT, TDG, GD, NOC, HONA, LHX | — |
| Utilities | XLU | State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF | -1.07% | -9.02% | -5.45% | 0.08% | 2.235e+10 | NEE, SO, DUK, CEG, AEP, D, SRE, ETR, XEL, VST | — |
| Robotics & AI | BOTZ | Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF | -1.08% | -2.93% | -5.98% | 0.68% | 3.743e+09 | ISRG, 6954.T, 6861.T, NVDA, ABBN.SW, 6273.T, 6383.T, CGNX, 300124.SZ, AUR | — |
| Nuclear Renaissance | NUKZ | Range Nuclear Renaissance Index ETF | -6.52% | -13.75% | -11.59% | 0.85% | 8.899e+08 | CCO.TO, OKLO, GEV, RR.L, TLN, ELE.MC, FORTUM.HE, DUK, VST, D | — |
| Defense Technology | SHLD | Global X Defense Tech ETF | -3.11% | -19.45% | -14.09% | 0.50% | 7.991e+09 | PLTR, RTX, GD, LMT, NOC, BA.L, 012450.KQ, RHM.DE, LHX, SAAB-B.ST | — |
| Rare Earth Metals | REMX | VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF | -17.55% | -41.24% | -20.78% | 0.53% | 3.012e+09 | SQM, ALB, MP, PLS.AX, LYC.AX, 600111.SS, 601958.SS, 600549.SS, 7610.TW, ALM | — |
| Uranium Miners | URNM | Sprott Uranium Miners ETF | -13.78% | -30.24% | -23.23% | 0.75% | 2.21e+09 | CCO.TO, U-U.TO, NXE.TO, 1164.HK, KAP, UEC, PDN.AX, YCA.L, EFR.TO, DML.TO | — |
| Uranium | URA | Global X Uranium ETF | -13.35% | -27.71% | -23.25% | 0.69% | 7.063e+09 | CCO.TO, NXE.TO, OKLO, UEC, KAP, PDN.AX, EFR.TO, SMR, LEU | — |
| Uranium & Nuclear | NLR | VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF | -11.50% | -27.92% | -30.21% | 0.52% | 4.874e+09 | CEG, CCO.TO, PEG, FORTUM.HE, BWXT, NXE.TO, 1816.HK, OKLO, KAP, XE | — |
Macro Context
Forward-Looking Macro Context
Regime: Sticky core inflation near 2.7% and an effective Fed funds rate around 3.6% after a 2026 hike, a 10-year yield near 4.6%, VIX in the mid-teens and unemployment at 4.1% — no macro shock, but a market discriminating hard on idiosyncratic delivery. Capital intensity and refinancing are repricing the long tail of unprofitable, narrative-driven names.
AI & Datacenter Compute — Driver: hyperscaler capex broadening from compute into power, memory and cooling; cheaper tokens per unit of intelligence. Watch: Microsoft/AMD in-house silicon scaling (margin pressure on the supply chain), a reassessment of AI ROI, and political pushback against data-center buildouts.
Cybersecurity & Cloud Software — Driver: AI adoption expands attack surface; security and infrastructure software monetize tokens rather than being disintermediated by them. Watch: platform consolidation and whether enterprise budgets shift from hardware to software.
Energy & Tanker Shipping — Driver: Middle East conflict risk and elevated crude (WTI up sharply y/y) plus tanker ton-mile disruption. Watch: Strait of Hormuz flows and any post-midterm US-Iran deal that could deflate the oil premium.
Medtech & Life-Science Tools / Consumer Staples — Driver: defensive rotation into non-discretionary demand and cash-generative balance sheets as rate-sensitive cyclicals and AI hardware get sold. Watch: tariff pass-through into input costs and reimbursement/pricing policy.
Industrial Reshoring & Electrification — Driver: onshore manufacturing incentives, grid and data-center electrical demand. Watch: higher funding costs slowing capex growth and Section 232 machinery tariffs.
Defense & Aerospace — Driver: global defense budgets (Europe +102%, Asia +50% since 2016) and national-security procurement. Watch: the November 3 US midterms, a possible divided government, and defense supplemental funding.
Nuclear, Power & Critical Minerals — Driver: China's near-monopoly on rare-earth/NdFeB processing and export controls, plus US DFARS restrictions effective 2027 and AI-driven power demand. Watch: funding conditions for pre-profit SMR and mining names and the January 2027 US-China tariff truce expiry — a strategic-necessity theme trading as an out-of-favor momentum name.
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